GEMMES Vietnam: Analysis of socio-economic impacts of climate change, the energy transition and adaptation strategies

The GEMMES Vietnam project was initiated in response to a request from the Department of Climate Change (DCC) of Vietnam’s Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MoNRE), serving as the General Secretariat of the Vietnamese National Committee on Climate Change (NCCC).

In 2018, the Vietnamese government and AFD jointly agreed to undertake a two-year extensive study of the socio-economic effects of climate change and adaptation strategies for Vietnam in a long-term perspective, up to 2050. 

The GEMMES Vietnam project is currently in its second phase (2023-2026).

The first phase, conducted in partnership with the Institute for Development Research (IRD) and funded by the 2050 Facility, had the following main objectives:

• To support Vietnam in building a development trajectory that is resilient to the effects of climate change, particularly in the long term (by 2050)
• Capacity building in research (such as theses, post-docs, seminars and training), notably by a network of Franco-Vietnamese researchers
• Feeding a public policy dialogue with the Vietnamese government at the ministerial and local levels (adaptation strategy, Mekong plan, etc.)
• Raising public awareness of the impacts of climate change

The second phase of the program was officially launched at COP28 in December 2023 and aims to support the development of a just transition approach in Vietnam. Building on the results of the first phase of GEMMES Vietnam, it brings together researchers and policymakers to provide science-based evidence on three different aspects: 

• The assessment of changes in extreme climate events to inform adaptation policies
• The modelling of the macroeconomic impact of the energy transition 
• The social dimensions of climate change and the energy transition

Funded via the 2050 Facility, this program aims to inform public policy dialogue regarding net-zero strategies, contribute to the development and implementation of the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JET-P) and of Vietnam’s National Determined Contribution (NDC 2030).

See also: AFD and Macroeconomic Modelling Tools for the Ecological Transition

The GEMMES Vietnam project is structured around 3 “circles”: 

• An academic circle at the heart of the program, which autonomously develops its research, while providing input for diagnoses and policy recommendations
• An institutional circle, which aims to cooperate with the various ministries in charge of climate issues – especially regarding impact and adaptation – to inform diagnoses and recommendations 
• A public circle, which promotes the dissemination of information on the impacts of climate change and possible resilience strategies through closer contact with the different strands of Vietnamese society 

In addition to AFD's research department, the project's scientific partners include:

• Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM)
• Central Institute for Natural Resources and Environmental Studies, Vietnam National University Hanoi (VNU-CRES)
• Danang University
• Faculty of Economics and Rural Development, Vietnam National University of Agriculture, Vietnam (VNUA-FERD)
• Institute of Labor Science and Social Affairs (ILSSA)
• Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)
• Mekong Development Research Institute (MDRI)
• Nong Lam University
• University of Engineering and Technology, Vietnam National University Hanoi (VNU-UET)
• University of Science and Technology of Hanoi (USTH)
• University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vietnam National University Hanoi (VNU-USSH)
• Vietnam Institute of Economics (VASS, VIE)
• Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change (IMHEN)
• Vietnamese Germany University

In partnership with the AFD ECOMORE 2 project, we have developed a dynamic mapping of future climate scenarios centred on Vietnam, progressively fed by the new scenarios built by the GEMMES Vietnam project. 

A specific mapping is also being developed for the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, with cross-case scenarios of sea level rise, subsidence and soil salinisation.

• COP27: The Mekong Delta Emergency – Climate and Environmental Adaptation Strategies to 2050
• COP27: National Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation - Final Report
• Special report on the occasion of the COP26

AFD working papers:

• Impacts of Extreme Climate Events on Technical Efficiency in Vietnamese Agriculture
• Non-Linear Impacts of Climate Change on Income and Inequality In Vietnam

Refereed journals:

• The Three Dialectics of Adaptation Finance in Vietnam, Sustainability, 12(18), 7691. Pannier, E., Vu, T. C., Espagne, E., Pulliat, G., & Nguyen, T. T. H. (2020).
• Projections of Salt Intrusion in a Mega-Delta Under Climatic and Anthropogenic Stressors. Communications Earth & Environment, 2(1), 1-11. Eslami, S., Hoekstra, P., Minderhoud, P. S., Trung, N. N., Hoch, J. M., Sutanudjaja, E. H., ... & van der Vegt, M. (2021).

The Mekong emergency

• Session 1: January 5th 2022 - 9.30 am (CET) / 3.30 pm (CET + 6)
  
  The Mekong Delta in the face of increasing climatic and anthropogenic pressures
• Session 2: January 12th 2022 -9.30 am (CET) / 3.30 pm (CET + 6)
  
  Dynamics of salinity intrusion in the Mekong delta
• Session 3: January 19th 2022 - 9.30 am (CET) / 3.30 pm (CET + 6)
  
  Modelling dynamic adaptation strategies in the Mekong delta
• Session 4: January 26th 2022 - 9.30 am (CET) / 3.30 pm (CET + 6)
  
  Mekong transboundary resource governance in an era of changes

Updated national impacts and adaptation

• Session 5: March 9th 2022 -9.30 am (CET) / 3.30 pm (CET + 6)
  
  Update on the climate scenarios for Vietnam
• Session 6: March 16st 2022 - 9.30 am (CET) / 3.30 pm (CET + 6)
  
  Mortality and infectious disease
• Session 7:  March 23th 2022 - 9.30 am (CET) / 3.30 pm (CET + 6)
  
  Energy demand and supply
• Session 8: March 30th 2022 - 10.30 am (CET) / 3.30 pm (CET + 5)
  
  Agriculture and rice
• Session 9: April 6th 2022 - 10.30 am (CET) / 3.30 pm (CET + 5)
  
  Labor productivity and household revenues

Macroeconomics of climate impacts and adaptation finance

• Session 10: May 11th 2022 - 10.30 am (CET) / 3.30 pm (CET + 5)
  
  Financing adaptation strategies, measuring adaptation finance
• Session 11: May 18th 2022 - 10.30 am (CET) / 3.30 pm (CET + 5)
  
  Climate and adaptation in Vietnam, contributions from an environmental history of Vietnam
• Session 12: May 25th 2022 - 10.30 am (CET) / 3.30 pm (CET + 5)
  
  An empirical multi-sectoral stock-flow consistent model of Vietnam
• Session 13: June 1st 2022 - 10.30 am (CET) / 3.30 pm (CET + 5)
  
  Integrated climate impacts and adaptation strategies for Vietnam by 2050

Watch the webinars replays:

• 11 November 2021: Presentation of the report to the Delegation of the European Union to Vietnam
• November 2021 to May 2022: 2nd series of webinars of the GEMMES Vietnam project
• 10 November 2021: Side-event at the IDFC Pavilion in Glasgow
• 10 November 2021: AFD webinar with detailed presentation of the report
• 1 November 2021: Official handover of the GEMMES Vietnam special report at COP26 in Glasgow between AFD's CEO and Vietnam's Minister of Environment, followed by a presentation of the report
• 28/29/30 October 2021: Presentation of the macroeconomic model at the annual FMM conference in Berlin
• 5 October 2021: Presentation of the macroeconomic model at the Workshop on SFC modelling of the Energetic Prosperity Chair
• 25 March 2021: Signature of a Memorandum of Understanding between the Institute of Meteorology (IMHEN) and AFD Hanoi
• December 2020 to February 2021: 1st series of webinars of the GEMMES Vietnam project
• 7/8 November 2019: Participation in the IRASEC conference "Rethinking Asian Capitalism and Society" in Ho Chi Minh City
• 23/24 September 2019: Launch meetings of the research project in Hanoi
• 25 July 2019: Signature of a research collaboration between AFD's research department and IRD's representation in Vietnam
• 8 May 2018: Institutional launch of the GEMMES Vietnam project at the Hanoi University of Economics
• 28 March 2018: Signing of a Memorandum of Understanding at the Elysée Palace between the Minister of Natural Resources and Environment (MoNRE) of Vietnam and the Director General of the French Development Agency (AFD)